What it measures, how it is verified, and — just as important — what it does not claim.
We found a defect in how closed trades were recorded. A position only counted as closed if its share balance reached exactly zero. Positions that closed but left a rounding remnant — fractions of a single share — had their entire result discarded, wins and losses alike. Partially exited positions were dropped the same way.
The effect was not marginal. On one ranked trader, 18 markets were affected, including a $290,189 gain and a $225,899 loss that never appeared in their record at all. Most records carrying a score were affected to some degree.
Records are being rebuilt from on-chain activity. Scores and rankings will move, and some traders will move down — records that omitted losses looked better than reality. We are stating this while it is being fixed rather than after, because a page claiming records are verified should say so when they are incomplete.
A trader's score is their realized return on closed trades, computed only from markets we can independently verify. Three things shape it:
Every score is shown with its sample size (n). A score without an n is not a score, and you will never see one here.
Only durable markets — the ones resolving weeks or months out: politics, macro, geopolitics, long-horizon futures. Short-cycle markets (five-minute crypto binaries, parlays) are excluded from scoring for a specific reason: they age out of public data before their outcomes can be independently checked. If we cannot verify it, it does not count toward a score.
Those excluded trades are not hidden. They appear in a trader's full history, labelled, so the record stays complete even where the score is narrow.
A track record is only worth what it can be checked against. Ours are reconciled against two independent sources:
We also keep our own permanent archive of market resolutions, captured as markets close. Public data is dropped over time; a record that can only be verified this month is not verified.
Wins and losses carry equal weight in the record and equal prominence on the page. A profitable trader's worst call is on their profile next to their best one. Nothing is collapsed, hidden, or quietly dropped.
Profiles also state how a record was made — whether a trader typically exits early on price moves or holds to resolution. Most traders exit early; that is normal and not a criticism. It is disclosed because the two are different activities, and a win rate means different things in each.
The score measures past performance. It does not predict future results.
We have tested this directly rather than assuming it: ranking traders by their score at a past date and measuring what they earned afterwards, on trades the score had never seen. At the sample sizes available today, a higher score did not reliably predict higher future returns — for individual traders or for groups of them.
That finding is consistent with how competitive markets behave, and it is why we describe this as a verified record rather than a tip sheet. A high score means a trader's past results are real and checkable. It does not mean their next trade will win, and copying a highly ranked trader is not a strategy with a demonstrated edge. Trade at your own risk.